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Thursday Class (and Continuing)

  11/27/18 16:19, by John

For Thursday, a shift in gears and focus.

For those of you (all of you?) slow to notice, this class' requirements are very much opposite to the requirements for the now completed Personal Finance.

Personal Finance happened IN CLASS -- your attendance and attention IN CLASS allowed you to pass.  My role in the Personal Finance class was the "teacher" -- I presented the information for you to learn in class.

Statistics and Probability learning will happen outside of class. Though essential, the technical understandings  -- normal distributions and deviations and the mathematical workings of probability so far -- are only a small part of class. Your applications of interest and energy into exploring the infinite variety of uses of statistical and statistical thinking  is where this class "happens".

In  Statistics and Probability class time, my function is merely to bring up possibilites of interest -- your interest -- to facilitate you own exploration of statistics.. Before each class, I have suggested (at least) 5 projects you could work on outside of class; during class I demonstrate the projects I have completed for class as well as generating more ideas for projects for you to participate in.

So far, the majority of this class has shown little initiative in creating interest for themselves in my suggestions  or finding projects  to accomplish outside of class for their own exploration of statistics and probability. Monday's class was particularly revealing in the lack of interest of the material -- under-prepared and dispirited and apathetic  (which translates directly to boredom for me). It seems to me that the good majority of the class is waiting for the class to begin when the class -- as scheduled -- is moving to its first third complete.

In light of these observations, I am changing my involvement in class. I will break the general class time into two sections:

1. A first 20 minutes/half hour of Basic Material for me to "teach" that everyone is responsible to attend.

2. The balance of class-time will be dedicated to several other activities with time divisions divided based on the responses of interested and prepared participants.  Those who are not interested in attending  these activities are free to work on projects of their own.

SPECIAL NOTE: If I hear word in the future, like I heard word on Monday when the class was dismissed early, that ANY student of this class, who, upon leaving class, is disruptive to ANY PERSON at the school during  class time  -- this student (or students) will be removed from the entire Probability and Statistics class and receive NO CREDIT. This note applies not only to the Sophomore Boys  but any student who acts like an unsupervised Laurel Sophomore Boy during class -- DO NOT PUSH YOUR LUCK ON THIS ACCOUNT.

THURSDAY

Blog which sections you will be attending.

Required Section

BASIC SECTION: Correlation and Causation

Basic Preparation:  Visit Google Correlate and play around -- make sure you at least look at the searches "mittens" is highly correlated with -- decide what is happening and, if you want more depth, red the description of the Correlation Algorithm 

Optional Sections

SECTION ONE: Monopoly Strategy -- discussion of optimum strategies for playing Monopoly. BTW, as of Tuesday morning, my excel algorithm has moved the shoe 1,200,000 revolutions of the board....

SECTION ONE Preparation: Bring in lists of things that make Monopoly non-random -- why are some squares landed on more than other squares for example. Make a list of several strategies that could improve y0ur out come.

SECTION TWO: Creating an Algorithm for the Yahtzee player. A discussion of the process of making a "decision tree" for the game of Yahtzee -- that is a progress of considerations that would help a machine make decisions about how to allocate the 39 possible dice rolls (thirteen turns) that make up a Yahtzee game. Algorithms can be extremely simple or highly complex but every algorithm must have a specific instruction of how to make decisions that a human (or non human) can follow.

SECTION TWO Preparation: Begin to outline how your algorithm would take shape -- a simple way to begin this outline process is to actually play the game and record how your human decision making progresses.

SECTION THREE: Using EXCEL to correlate data -- I'll prepare a few examples and we'll put one together live.....

SECTION THREE Preparation: Be able to download some data to Google Sheets (it takes three minutes to learn from me or a classmate...) -- here is a link to one sheet of data I will use to relate NFL statistics to -- what else -- NFL wins

Ultimately, we can use this correlation to make a prediction model based on past statistics....

SECTION FOUR: Follow through with the "quarter circle in a box" or Buffon's needle experiment for prediction of a value of PI.

SECTION FOUR Preparation: Attempt "QC in a Box" or Buffon's experiment at home -- see this post for details

19 comments

Comment from: [Member]

Thank you John, I will be attending Section One of the optional section and the required section as well.

11/28/18 @ 19:28
Comment from: [Member]

Thank you John! I will be attending the required section and then for the optional section I will be working on one of my projects.

For (one) or my projects I would like to the read the book you were speaking off previously. Is it possible you could get me a copy or print it for me?

11/28/18 @ 19:33
Comment from: [Member]

Rowan which book? Here are several I have mentioned –

Biography of Alan Turing (the man who masterminded the breaking of the enigma code during WWII)

Wisdom of the Crowds – interesting thesis that groups of people make better decisions than experts.

Black Swan – a thesis that change comes not from slow progress (and the normal curve) but from far outlying events and occurrences

Money Ball – the description of the Oakland A’s baseball team that turned from professional scouts to data analysis to select players for their team (and how the succeeded)

11/28/18 @ 19:45
Comment from: [Member]

I would love to read the biography on Alan Turing. I also have always wanted to watch that movie so this would be great!

11/28/18 @ 19:47
Comment from: [Member]

Thanks! I will go to section 1.

Do I need to post my algorithm?

11/28/18 @ 20:00
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in the required section as well as Section Three. I have been messing around with Google Sheets, It’s pretty cool but I’m having a hard time getting it to do what I want.

11/28/18 @ 20:14
Comment from: [Member]
Cayleigh

I will be attending section three.

11/28/18 @ 20:31
Comment from: [Member]

Thank you John. I will be attending class as well as section one.

To echo Hannah do we need to post our algorithms?

11/28/18 @ 20:51
Comment from: [Member]

Thanks John,

I will attend the required part of class, and will use the rest of the time t work on a project.

I am also very interested in reading the biography of Alan Turing if possible.

11/28/18 @ 21:32
Comment from: [Member]

Thank you john! I will be attending the first part as well as sections 1 and 3 because they sound fun and all I have time for tonight. I really want to learn more about excel.

11/28/18 @ 21:32
Comment from: [Member]

Thanks for the post John. I will be attending the required class. I am also interested in attending classes 3 and 4.

11/28/18 @ 21:35
Comment from: [Member]

I will be attending the required part of class, as well as Section One.

11/28/18 @ 21:42
Comment from: [Member]

Thanks John. I will be attending the required class for the first 30 mins. For the rest of the time I will work on projects I would like to do :)

11/28/18 @ 21:51
Comment from: [Member]

I will be attending the required section of class tomorrow. I looked at Google Correlate and it was cool to see all the different stats for searches (I think that’s what its showing)

I will be working on my own projects for the rest of class independently.

11/28/18 @ 22:04
Comment from: [Member]

I will only be in the required portion of class tomorrow. After that I will be working on projects. I think I will do something with correlation as I find this quite fascinating.

11/28/18 @ 22:18
Comment from: [Member]

Sorry for the late post everyone. I didn’t expect to get home this late. I will got the the required part of the class as well as section 1. The rest of the time I will work on projects.

11/28/18 @ 22:22
Comment from: [Member]

I will be attending the required section as well as all four optional sections.

Preparation for basic section:
I searched around on Google Correlate and found “meatloaf dead.” The graph that went along with this was very, very interesting… I suggest looking at it. I also read though some of the PDF, but I am still not quite sue what I am looking at. I love the comic book though :-P . I also looked at the mitten search.

Preparation for section one:
Reasons monopoly is not random:

- doubles (two dice of the same number) contain different game value

- since the game uses two dice, certain numbers are more likely to occur than others (this is also why certain spaces may be landed on more often)

- the game depends on more than just numbers (also uses cards, patterns, shortcuts, etc.)

Preparation for section two:
I am super interested in making an algorithm. I played Yahtzee with the computer program bill, and I beat it (221 to 189)! I wrote down both of our points on the scorecard.

Preparation for section three:
I have data in a spreadsheet.

I did not have time to do the penny project tonight but I would still like to attend section four if possible. Is that alright with people? Otherwise I can spend that time collecting data from one of the suggested activities.

11/28/18 @ 22:47
Comment from: [Member]

I won again. 223 to 151. :-D

11/28/18 @ 23:02
Comment from: [Member]

I will be attending section 3, sorry for the late post

11/29/18 @ 08:30


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