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Thursday -- Polling I: Sample Error

  12/04/18 11:39, by John

1. Please blog report which sections you will be attending.

2. Deadline Reporting: Since the class as a whole, (besides Dylan) has shown little interest in working on class projects as a group, each class member (besides Dylan) has to post a comprehensive schedule of due dates for their six projects and a brief description of their projects they are currently working on this separate blog post here. Remember, each class member is responsible for at least three visual statistical presentations and three hands on statistical projects/experiments/reports. (Of course longer projects/presentations that motivate your interest or exploring energy can be substituted for smaller projects)

You may change your deadlines and project goals at any time but every class member (except Dylan) is required to map out deadlines BY MONDAY CLASSTIME or risk being removed from credit consideration for this class.

BASIC: The Basic Class will meet for the last ten minutes of class to summarize the ideas of the readings.

Preparation: None.

SECTION ONE: Discussion of readings from election polling history -- the three most famous miscalculated Presidential Election polls.

Preparation: Read for discussion the handout from Monday's class -- Emery has copies for those who were not able to attend Monday's class.

SECTION TWO: EXCEL/Google Sheets practice on the Quartering the Circle PI generating problem.

Preparation: Work through the exercises created here on a Google Sheet. Make a copy of the sheet so that you can experiment. Bring yme our questions, conclusions and frustrations to class so we can discuss basic EXCEL/Sheets skills.

SECTION THREE: Any interest in Yahtzee strategy -- a last chance for those (besides Dylan) who have interest in this project.

19 comments

Comment from: [Member]

I will be in basic section and section one. I will blog my plan on the other post.

12/04/18 @ 16:16
Comment from: [Member]

Is the project outline for Monday or tomorrow?

12/04/18 @ 21:09
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in the basic section and section one. I will post my project outline tomorrow.

12/05/18 @ 15:08
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in the basic section, section 1.
I need a little help with my project outline, so I will post that tomorrow

12/05/18 @ 15:59
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in section 1 tomorrow.

I am slightly confused if we go to section 1 do we also need to go to the basic section?

If so I will also be in the basic section.

During the rest of class time I will be working on my projects having to do with Pascal’s Triangle.

12/05/18 @ 16:11
Comment from: [Member]

Thanks John! I will be in the basic part of class and in section 1. With the other time I have for that block I will start to read Wisdom of the Crowds for one of my projects.

12/05/18 @ 16:34
Comment from: [Member]
Cayleigh

I will be in section one of class as well as the basic section.

12/05/18 @ 18:53
Comment from: [Member]

Thank you john, I will be attending both the basic class and possibly class 1 but for sure I will be in class 2

12/05/18 @ 20:33
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in both the basic and section 2. I am going to post my list of projects on that page tomorrow.

12/05/18 @ 21:14
Comment from: [Member]

I know it is a bit late, as I just got home a little bit ago, but would anybody be able to post the PDF of the reading? If not, I will be attending the basic section of class, as well as section two. I also do not understand what I am supposed to do for the Excel class.

12/05/18 @ 21:28
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in class for the basic section and section one.
The rest of the time I will be working on a project looking the stats of Wayne Gretzky, the best hockey player ever, compared to the NHL stars of today.

12/05/18 @ 21:33
Comment from: [Member]

I will be participating in the basic section, section two, and section three.

My excel preparation is the comments of the excel exercise post.

:-)

12/05/18 @ 21:36
Comment from: [Member]

Thanks John, I will attend the basic section and section 1 of class tomorrow. And will work on my project for the remainder of the time.

12/05/18 @ 21:52
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in the basic class, and also class 1 and probably class 3 as well.

12/05/18 @ 21:55
Comment from: [Member]

I plan on attending section 1, and the basic section of class tomorrow. For the rest of the time I will be continuing and finishing up my calculations of the “QC in the Box” project. If I get finished with that I will start working on my next project.

12/05/18 @ 21:57
Comment from: [Member]

Here Caspian — much later than your post – a link to a WORD file…


Attachments:
12/05/18 @ 22:14
Comment from: [Member]

I will be in the Basic section, as well as class 1 and 2.

I have posted my deadlines on the “Deadline Reports” page.

12/05/18 @ 22:15
Comment from: [Member]

I’m not coming to class.

Instead, I will be researching the answers on Kahn Academy to the billions of questions I have in Probs and Stats.
-I will also find out what I can do as a project instead of a Galton board because too many people picked that as their project.

John do you have any project ideas that no one has done, is doing, or is thinking of doing for Probs and stats?

12/05/18 @ 22:18
Comment from: [Member]

I did a poor job of reading before class, here are some thoughts of mine about the article along with a couple definitions.

The Bradley effect describes one way that pollsters can be untrustworthy. When asked who they will be voting for, some pollsters might say they are going to vote for someone based on the fact that they are a minority or are at a disadvantage, while in reality they are only saying this to appear more accepting in the face of a statistic. Answering polling results this way gives the false sense that one candidate is more favored.

GIGO (Garbage in, Garbage out). In terms of polling, when people lie about their polling answers, the end product polls will be inaccurate.

If you want people to come out and participate in polls, you need to make the polls free, easily accessible and anonymous. In the modern day, polls can use the internet to find and contact potential pollsters. This is good because it is easy and free for people to fill out and receive these polls. It is almost essential for polls to be anonymous. If people know that others can see their poll answers, they might be encouraged to vote for the candidate that makes them look the best, instead of the candidate that really reflects their values. If pollsters must seek out polls, or if the polls cost money to take part in, far fewer people will turn up for the poll because they don’t take the time or see the use in collecting this data before an election.

12/06/18 @ 10:32


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